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'We measured it, so you do not have to take our word'

Every projection below was scored against the real result, on games the model had not seen when it made them. The table shows what it projected, what happened, and how often the 80% projected range held.

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How to read the table

Each row is one stat for one position. Projected is the average of what the model expected. Actual is the average of what the players did. When the two sit close together, the model is neither too high nor too low for that group.

The last column is the range test. predictapp shows an 80% projected range for every player. If the range is honest, the real result should land inside it about four times out of five. The column shows how often it did.

The rows cover players projected for a real role. The bench is left out, and the cut is made on the projection before the game, not on what the player went on to score. Rows with fewer than 100 games are not shown.

How close the projections have been

This is a backtest on games the model had not seen. Each row compares what it projected with what happened, for players projected for a real role. The last column shows how often the result landed inside the 80% projected range.

MarketSeasonsPlayer gamesProjectedActual80% range held
Receiving yards, RB2021 to 20253,65617.517.879.9%
Receiving yards, WR2021 to 20254,97955.855.379.2%
Receiving yards, TE2021 to 20251,17947.646.782.1%
Receptions, RB2021 to 20253,6562.332.4181.0%
Receptions, WR2021 to 20254,9794.404.3380.5%
Receptions, TE2021 to 20251,1794.364.2882.1%
Rushing yards, QB2022 to 20252,17313.618.577.6%
Rushing yards, RB2021 to 20253,65652.754.181.2%
Passing yards, QB2022 to 20252,173221.1223.781.2%
Anytime touchdown, QB2022 to 20252,17315%19%n/a
Anytime touchdown, RB2021 to 20253,65648%50%n/a
Anytime touchdown, WR2021 to 20254,97933%35%n/a
Anytime touchdown, TE2021 to 20251,17933%33%n/a
Passing touchdowns, QB2022 to 20252,1731.391.3980.5%

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  • ›A projection and an 80% projected range for every player
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Projection accuracy, answered

Is this a record of winning bets?

No. It measures how close the projections were and how often the range held. It does not count overs and unders won, because predictapp does not track sportsbook lines.

What does out of sample mean here?

Each game was scored by a version of the model that had not been trained on it. That is the difference between a test and a description of the past.

Real people, real words

“Buenos dias y Dios le Bendiga Hermano Daniel un placer me llamo Carlos Machado y desde que me uni a su sistema Predictapp no he dejado de Ganar anoche pegue 9 logros en futbol seguidos y todo el dia jugue 16 juegos y solo se fallo en 2 por medio goles que excelente aplicacion”

Good morning and God bless you brother Daniel, a pleasure, my name is Carlos Machado and since I joined your Predictapp system I have not stopped winning. Last night I hit 9 soccer picks in a row, and across the whole day I played 16 games and only missed 2 by half a goal. What an excellent app.

Carlos Machado, user

“Hola que tal, es una app muy buena mejor a comparación con otras que he usado y bastante certera.”

Hi there, it is a very good app, better compared to others I have used, and quite accurate.

Reynaldo Aguilar, user

“Gracias Daniel, la verdad que estoy muy contento con Predictapp y más con las nuevas adecuaciones que hiciste. Hasta el momento he estado apostando con cantidades muy bajas, ahora que mi confianza va aumentando espero ir incrementando poco a poco mi Stake.”

Thank you Daniel, I'm very happy with Predictapp and even more so with the new improvements you made. So far, I've been betting very low amounts. As my confidence grows, I hope to gradually increase my Stake.

Roberto S. L., user

“He ganado con otras recomendaciones de la app y en términos generales la encuentro muy completa.”

I've won with other recommendations from the app, and overall I find it very complete.

Roberto S., user

“Está muy bien la página; tiene mucha información disponible y está bien organizada.”

The site is very good; it has a lot of information available and it is well organized.

Leo, user

Learn the method

NFL predictionsNFL player propsReceiving yards propsRushing yards propsPassing yards propsWhat is a fair priceWhat is a pushWhy parlay odds misleadWhat is model calibrationWhat is an anytime touchdown propHow player props are pricedWhat is target shareHow to read defense vs positionPPR, half PPR and standard scoringFloor and ceiling in fantasy

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