'A 70% that happens 70% of the time'

Calibration is the test that separates a model that knows what it knows from one that just sounds confident. It is the strongest thing predictapp can show you, and you can check it yourself.

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How to check a model honestly

Take every game where a model said 70%. If it is calibrated, about 70 out of every 100 of those happened. If only 55 did, the model is overconfident and its prices are wrong.

Accuracy alone does not tell you this. A model that says 51% on everything can look accurate and still be useless, because it never commits to anything.

predictapp measures this on settled NFL games and publishes the result. Where a confidence band has fewer than 100 settled games, we show nothing rather than a number the sample cannot support.

73 is not a lock. 73 is 73. That is the whole point.

The measured record

What the model said, against what actually happened, on the game winner.

Model said	Actually happened	Games
54.9%	55.2%	1,834
64.7%	64.9%	1,564
74.4%	74.4%	1,057
83.8%	81.9%	415

How do you stop guessing?

1

Reveal a match

Pick any match you want. Predictapp shows you the probabilities, the fair price, and the story behind the number.

2

Build your combo

Add legs and watch the probability of hitting and the fair price move. Every leg you add lowers your chance of winning, now you know exactly how risky each leg is.

3

Let Coach Dex grade you

Save your bets. Dex grades them against results and shows your hit rate next to your ROI. It will also tell you what increases or decreases your ROI. No more guessing.

Read a real NFL game before you spend a cent

›Recent form for both teams, free on every game
›The probability and the fair price on every market
›Coach Dex, free, showing your hit rate next to your real ROI

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Calibration, answered

Why do you not show calibration on custom lines?

Because they have no track record. A line you typed yourself has never been settled thousands of times, so there is nothing honest to report. The app deliberately shows none.

Is calibration the same as being right?

No. A calibrated model still loses plenty of individual bets. It means that when it says 70%, you can trust the 70.

Real people, real words

“Buenos dias y Dios le Bendiga Hermano Daniel un placer me llamo Carlos Machado y desde que me uni a su sistema Predictapp no he dejado de Ganar anoche pegue 9 logros en futbol seguidos y todo el dia jugue 16 juegos y solo se fallo en 2 por medio goles que excelente aplicacion”

Good morning and God bless you brother Daniel, a pleasure, my name is Carlos Machado and since I joined your Predictapp system I have not stopped winning. Last night I hit 9 soccer picks in a row, and across the whole day I played 16 games and only missed 2 by half a goal. What an excellent app.

Carlos Machado, user

“Hola que tal, es una app muy buena mejor a comparación con otras que he usado y bastante certera.”

Hi there, it is a very good app, better compared to others I have used, and quite accurate.

Reynaldo Aguilar, user

“Gracias Daniel, la verdad que estoy muy contento con Predictapp y más con las nuevas adecuaciones que hiciste. Hasta el momento he estado apostando con cantidades muy bajas, ahora que mi confianza va aumentando espero ir incrementando poco a poco mi Stake.”

Thank you Daniel, I'm very happy with Predictapp and even more so with the new improvements you made. So far, I've been betting very low amounts. As my confidence grows, I hope to gradually increase my Stake.

Roberto S. L., user

“He ganado con otras recomendaciones de la app y en términos generales la encuentro muy completa.”

I've won with other recommendations from the app, and overall I find it very complete.

Roberto S., user

“Está muy bien la página; tiene mucha información disponible y está bien organizada.”

The site is very good; it has a lot of information available and it is well organized.

Leo, user

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