NFL passing touchdowns: leaders and prop lines
predictapp gives you everything you need to bet smarter on NFL passing touchdowns props
Brock Purdy leads the league with 11 passing touchdowns in 4 games, through week 4.
Passing touchdowns leaders
This season, through week 4
| Brock Purdy | QB | 4 | 11 | 2.8 | 100%4 of 4 | 100%4 of 4 | 50%2 of 4 | 25%1 of 4 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Kirk Cousins | QB | 4 | 11 | 2.8 | 100%4 of 4 | 100%4 of 4 | 75%3 of 4 | 0%0 of 4 |
| Bryce Young | QB | 4 | 9 | 2.3 | 100%4 of 4 | 75%3 of 4 | 50%2 of 4 | 0%0 of 4 |
| Jared Goff | QB | 4 | 9 | 2.3 | 100%4 of 4 | 75%3 of 4 | 25%1 of 4 | 25%1 of 4 |
| Patrick Mahomes | QB | 4 | 9 | 2.3 | 100%4 of 4 | 100%4 of 4 | 25%1 of 4 | 0%0 of 4 |
| Tyler Shough | QB | 4 | 9 | 2.3 | 100%4 of 4 | 50%2 of 4 | 50%2 of 4 | 25%1 of 4 |
| Dak Prescott | QB | 4 | 8 | 2 | 100%4 of 4 | 50%2 of 4 | 25%1 of 4 | 25%1 of 4 |
| Jordan Love | QB | 4 | 8 | 2 | 100%4 of 4 | 100%4 of 4 | 0%0 of 4 | 0%0 of 4 |
| Trevor Lawrence | QB | 4 | 8 | 2 | 75%3 of 4 | 50%2 of 4 | 50%2 of 4 | 25%1 of 4 |
| Aaron Rodgers | QB | 4 | 7 | 1.8 | 75%3 of 4 | 50%2 of 4 | 50%2 of 4 | 0%0 of 4 |
| Jalen Hurts | QB | 4 | 7 | 1.8 | 75%3 of 4 | 75%3 of 4 | 25%1 of 4 | 0%0 of 4 |
| Joe Burrow | QB | 4 | 7 | 1.8 | 100%4 of 4 | 50%2 of 4 | 25%1 of 4 | 0%0 of 4 |
| Deshaun Watson | QB | 4 | 6 | 1.5 | 100%4 of 4 | 50%2 of 4 | 0%0 of 4 | 0%0 of 4 |
| Jacoby Brissett | QB | 4 | 6 | 1.5 | 100%4 of 4 | 50%2 of 4 | 0%0 of 4 | 0%0 of 4 |
| Josh Allen | QB | 4 | 6 | 1.5 | 75%3 of 4 | 50%2 of 4 | 25%1 of 4 | 0%0 of 4 |
| Lamar Jackson | QB | 4 | 6 | 1.5 | 100%4 of 4 | 50%2 of 4 | 0%0 of 4 | 0%0 of 4 |
| Matthew Stafford | QB | 4 | 6 | 1.5 | 50%2 of 4 | 50%2 of 4 | 25%1 of 4 | 25%1 of 4 |
| Sam Darnold | QB | 3 | 6 | 2 | 67%2 of 3 | 67%2 of 3 | 33%1 of 3 | 33%1 of 3 |
| Bo Nix | QB | 4 | 5 | 1.3 | 100%4 of 4 | 25%1 of 4 | 0%0 of 4 | 0%0 of 4 |
| C.J. Stroud | QB | 4 | 5 | 1.3 | 75%3 of 4 | 50%2 of 4 | 0%0 of 4 | 0%0 of 4 |
| Geno Smith | QB | 4 | 5 | 1.3 | 75%3 of 4 | 25%1 of 4 | 25%1 of 4 | 0%0 of 4 |
| Drake Maye | QB | 4 | 4 | 1 | 50%2 of 4 | 25%1 of 4 | 25%1 of 4 | 0%0 of 4 |
| Drew Lock | QB | 2 | 4 | 2 | 100%2 of 2 | 50%1 of 2 | 50%1 of 2 | 0%0 of 2 |
| Justin Herbert | QB | 4 | 4 | 1 | 100%4 of 4 | 0%0 of 4 | 0%0 of 4 | 0%0 of 4 |
| Marcus Mariota | QB | 3 | 4 | 1.3 | 67%2 of 3 | 33%1 of 3 | 33%1 of 3 | 0%0 of 3 |
| Cam Ward | QB | 4 | 3 | 0.8 | 75%3 of 4 | 0%0 of 4 | 0%0 of 4 | 0%0 of 4 |
| Carson Wentz | QB | 2 | 3 | 1.5 | 50%1 of 2 | 50%1 of 2 | 50%1 of 2 | 0%0 of 2 |
| Daniel Jones | QB | 4 | 3 | 0.8 | 75%3 of 4 | 0%0 of 4 | 0%0 of 4 | 0%0 of 4 |
| Jameis Winston | QB | 3 | 3 | 1 | 33%1 of 3 | 33%1 of 3 | 33%1 of 3 | 0%0 of 3 |
| Jaxson Dart | QB | 2 | 3 | 1.5 | 50%1 of 2 | 50%1 of 2 | 50%1 of 2 | 0%0 of 2 |
| Jayden Daniels | QB | 2 | 3 | 1.5 | 100%2 of 2 | 50%1 of 2 | 0%0 of 2 | 0%0 of 2 |
| Baker Mayfield | QB | 3 | 2 | 0.7 | 67%2 of 3 | 0%0 of 3 | 0%0 of 3 | 0%0 of 3 |
| Caleb Williams | QB | 2 | 2 | 1 | 50%1 of 2 | 50%1 of 2 | 0%0 of 2 | 0%0 of 2 |
| Case Keenum | QB | 2 | 2 | 1 | 50%1 of 2 | 50%1 of 2 | 0%0 of 2 | 0%0 of 2 |
| Michael Penix Jr. | QB | 2 | 2 | 1 | 100%2 of 2 | 0%0 of 2 | 0%0 of 2 | 0%0 of 2 |
| Athan Kaliakmanis | QB | 1 | 1 | 1 | 100%1 of 1 | 0%0 of 1 | 0%0 of 1 | 0%0 of 1 |
| Cooper Rush | QB | 2 | 1 | 0.5 | 50%1 of 2 | 0%0 of 2 | 0%0 of 2 | 0%0 of 2 |
| Jalon Daniels | QB | 2 | 1 | 0.5 | 50%1 of 2 | 0%0 of 2 | 0%0 of 2 | 0%0 of 2 |
| Kyler Murray | QB | 3 | 1 | 0.3 | 33%1 of 3 | 0%0 of 3 | 0%0 of 3 | 0%0 of 3 |
| Malik Willis | QB | 4 | 1 | 0.3 | 25%1 of 4 | 0%0 of 4 | 0%0 of 4 | 0%0 of 4 |
All 32 teams
This season, through week 4
Each team's passing touchdowns a game. Every team links to its page.
| 1 | Raiders | 2.8 |
|---|---|---|
| 1 | 49ers | 2.8 |
| 3 | Seahawks | 2.5 |
| 4 | Panthers | 2.3 |
| 4 | Lions | 2.3 |
| 4 | Chiefs | 2.3 |
| 4 | Saints | 2.3 |
| 8 | Cowboys | 2 |
| 8 | Packers | 2 |
| 8 | Jaguars | 2 |
| 8 | Commanders | 2 |
| 12 | Bengals | 1.8 |
| 12 | Eagles | 1.8 |
| 12 | Steelers | 1.8 |
| 15 | Cardinals | 1.5 |
| 15 | Ravens | 1.5 |
| 15 | Bills | 1.5 |
| 15 | Browns | 1.5 |
| 15 | Rams | 1.5 |
| 15 | Giants | 1.5 |
| 21 | Broncos | 1.3 |
| 21 | Texans | 1.3 |
| 21 | Jets | 1.3 |
| 24 | Bears | 1 |
| 24 | Chargers | 1 |
| 24 | Vikings | 1 |
| 24 | Patriots | 1 |
| 28 | Falcons | 0.8 |
| 28 | Colts | 0.8 |
| 28 | Buccaneers | 0.8 |
| 28 | Titans | 0.8 |
| 32 | Dolphins | 0.3 |
How close predictapp's projections have been
Tested on games the model had not seen: what it projected next to what happened, for players projected for a real role. The last column is how often the result landed inside the projected 80% range.
| Market | This season | Player games | Projected | Actual | Inside the 80% range |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Passing touchdowns, QB | 2022 to 2025 | 2,173 | 1.39 | 1.39 | 80.5% |
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