NFL same game parlays: the numbers behind each leg
predictapp gives you everything you need to bet smarter on NFL same game parlays
Every leg you add lowers your chance of winning. Since 2000, 3001 of 6811 NFL games went over 45.5 points, and 3596 were decided by more than 7.5.
The legs, across the league
This season, through week 6
| Line | This season | Since 2000 |
|---|---|---|
| Over 30.5 points | 89%82 of 92 | 83%5651 of 6811 |
| Over 42.5 points | 51%47 of 92 | 54%3670 of 6811 |
| Over 45.5 points | 45%41 of 92 | 44%3001 of 6811 |
| Over 48.5 points | 40%37 of 92 | 36%2457 of 6811 |
| Over 50.5 points | 39%36 of 92 | 32%2170 of 6811 |
| Decided by more than 3.5 | 75%69 of 92 | 77%5211 of 6811 |
| Decided by more than 7.5 | 45%41 of 92 | 53%3596 of 6811 |
| Decided by more than 10.5 | 35%32 of 92 | 42%2852 of 6811 |
| Decided by more than 14.5 | 24%22 of 92 | 30%2066 of 6811 |
Every team, games over 45.5
All 32 teams. Each links to its own page, where every line is counted.
| Lions | 100%5 of 5 | 53%230 of 433 |
|---|---|---|
| Bills | 83%5 of 6 | 42%187 of 442 |
| Commanders | 80%4 of 5 | 42%183 of 435 |
| Saints | 67%4 of 6 | 54%241 of 446 |
| Colts | 67%4 of 6 | 52%237 of 454 |
| Cowboys | 67%4 of 6 | 50%220 of 441 |
| Raiders | 67%4 of 6 | 45%198 of 436 |
| Falcons | 67%4 of 6 | 45%199 of 441 |
| Giants | 67%4 of 6 | 42%189 of 445 |
| 49ers | 60%3 of 5 | 46%208 of 451 |
| Bengals | 60%3 of 5 | 41%180 of 439 |
| Cardinals | 50%3 of 6 | 47%205 of 437 |
| Seahawks | 50%3 of 6 | 46%210 of 458 |
| Texans | 50%3 of 6 | 42%172 of 411 |
| Ravens | 50%3 of 6 | 38%173 of 459 |
| Steelers | 50%3 of 6 | 35%161 of 457 |
| Chiefs | 40%2 of 5 | 46%211 of 455 |
| Panthers | 40%2 of 5 | 42%184 of 442 |
| Dolphins | 40%2 of 5 | 37%162 of 433 |
| Packers | 33%2 of 6 | 54%250 of 460 |
| Rams | 33%2 of 6 | 48%218 of 450 |
| Patriots | 33%2 of 6 | 47%224 of 473 |
| Bears | 33%2 of 6 | 37%161 of 438 |
| Vikings | 20%1 of 5 | 46%205 of 441 |
| Chargers | 17%1 of 6 | 47%209 of 442 |
| Eagles | 17%1 of 6 | 45%210 of 463 |
| Broncos | 17%1 of 6 | 45%201 of 445 |
| Buccaneers | 17%1 of 6 | 43%192 of 444 |
| Titans | 17%1 of 6 | 43%188 of 441 |
| Jaguars | 17%1 of 6 | 40%173 of 436 |
| Jets | 17%1 of 6 | 36%158 of 439 |
| Browns | 17%1 of 6 | 35%151 of 431 |
How predictapp's model has done here
Each row is a confidence band: what the model said on average, and in how many finished games it happened.
| Confidence | predictapp said | Happened |
|---|---|---|
| 50-60% | 55% | 55%1027 of 1871 |
| 60-70% | 65% | 65%1031 of 1591 |
| 70-80% | 74% | 74%802 of 1080 |
| 80-90% | 84% | 82%344 of 420 |
Questions
Why does each leg lower the chance of winning?
A parlay wins only if every leg wins. Two legs that each land 56% of the time land together far less often, and the payout grows while the chance shrinks.
Can I build a same game parlay in predictapp?
Yes. The app shows the probability of the whole parlay and its fair price as you add each leg.
NFL, team and player names are used for identification only and are trademarks of their respective owners. predictapp is not affiliated with, endorsed by, or sponsored by the NFL, any team or any player. The tables on this page are past results, not predictions. 18+.