NFL spreads: margins and every team
predictapp gives you everything you need to bet smarter on NFL spreads
Since 2000, 5211 of 6811 NFL games were decided by more than 3.5 points, and 3596 by more than 7.5.
How NFL games are decided
This season, through week 6
| Line | This season | Since 2000 |
|---|---|---|
| Decided by more than 3.5 | 75%69 of 92 | 77%5211 of 6811 |
| Decided by more than 7.5 | 45%41 of 92 | 53%3596 of 6811 |
| Decided by more than 10.5 | 35%32 of 92 | 42%2852 of 6811 |
| Decided by more than 14.5 | 24%22 of 92 | 30%2066 of 6811 |
Every team, games won by 4 or more
All 32 teams. Each links to its own page, where every line is counted.
| Vikings | 100%5 of 5 | 41%182 of 441 |
|---|---|---|
| 49ers | 80%4 of 5 | 39%178 of 451 |
| Bears | 67%4 of 6 | 35%155 of 438 |
| Chiefs | 60%3 of 5 | 45%206 of 455 |
| Bengals | 60%3 of 5 | 37%163 of 439 |
| Panthers | 60%3 of 5 | 35%155 of 442 |
| Patriots | 50%3 of 6 | 56%264 of 473 |
| Steelers | 50%3 of 6 | 49%223 of 457 |
| Ravens | 50%3 of 6 | 47%214 of 459 |
| Broncos | 50%3 of 6 | 41%183 of 445 |
| Bills | 50%3 of 6 | 39%174 of 442 |
| Giants | 50%3 of 6 | 36%162 of 445 |
| Jaguars | 50%3 of 6 | 30%132 of 436 |
| Raiders | 50%3 of 6 | 28%120 of 436 |
| Lions | 40%2 of 5 | 29%125 of 433 |
| Packers | 33%2 of 6 | 50%231 of 460 |
| Seahawks | 33%2 of 6 | 44%200 of 458 |
| Saints | 33%2 of 6 | 42%188 of 446 |
| Cowboys | 33%2 of 6 | 40%177 of 441 |
| Rams | 33%2 of 6 | 38%169 of 450 |
| Falcons | 33%2 of 6 | 36%157 of 441 |
| Jets | 33%2 of 6 | 31%138 of 439 |
| Eagles | 17%1 of 6 | 49%226 of 463 |
| Colts | 17%1 of 6 | 44%198 of 454 |
| Buccaneers | 17%1 of 6 | 35%154 of 444 |
| Texans | 17%1 of 6 | 33%137 of 411 |
| Titans | 17%1 of 6 | 33%146 of 441 |
| Cardinals | 17%1 of 6 | 30%132 of 437 |
| Browns | 17%1 of 6 | 23%101 of 431 |
| Chargers | 0%0 of 6 | 39%173 of 442 |
| Dolphins | 0%0 of 5 | 36%155 of 433 |
| Commanders | 0%0 of 5 | 28%122 of 435 |
How predictapp's model has done here
Each row is a confidence band: what the model said on average, and in how many finished games it happened.
| Confidence | predictapp said | Happened |
|---|---|---|
| 50-60% | 55% | 55%1027 of 1871 |
| 60-70% | 65% | 65%1031 of 1591 |
| 70-80% | 74% | 74%802 of 1080 |
| 80-90% | 84% | 82%344 of 420 |
Create free accountNo credit card required
Questions
How often is an NFL game decided by more than a touchdown?
By more than 7.5 points in 3596 of 6811 games since 2000 (53%).
How often does the home team win in the NFL?
In 3803 of 6811 games since 2000 (56%).
NFL, team and player names are used for identification only and are trademarks of their respective owners. predictapp is not affiliated with, endorsed by, or sponsored by the NFL, any team or any player. The tables on this page are past results, not predictions. 18+.